Twin Tiers Living

BATH, N.Y. (WETM) — The owner of a local ‘sticker store’ chain was arrested and indicted in October on several felony charges after a warrant was served on Tuesday, according to the Steuben County District Attorney’s Office. Christopher M Mickinkle, 49, was arrested and processed on Tuesday, Oct. 22, after a warrant was served by the Steuben County Sheriff’s Office The warrant stems from two incidents where Mickinkle was pulled over in Steuben County in his cars and was said to have more than $10,000 and products in his vehicles, Steuben County District Attorney Brooks Baker said. Read the rest here.

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By Sean Trende October 23, 2024 With less than two weeks until Election Day, the publicly available data continues to suggest a closer race than any election I’ve covered. Although our poll averages show Donald Trump winning by 312 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 226 electoral votes, this doesn’t tell the full story. In the key battleground states, four of Trump’s leads are under a single decimal point: As of this writing, 0.8% in Pennsylvania, 0.4% in North Carolina, 0.4% in Wisconsin, and 0.9% in Michigan. Another three races show a lead of fewer than three points: Michigan (1.2), Arizona (1.8), and Georgia (2.5). It wouldn’t take a significant poll error for Harris to win. As I give pre-election speeches and talks, though, I’m discovering that people find that answer – “It is close” – strangely unsatisfying. One thing I’ve learned through years of doing this job is that people have a difficult time dealing with uncertainty. You can see this in the reactions as various forecasting models have shifted over the past few weeks. Over time, the difference between a 53% chance of an outcome and a 47% chance of an outcome can be meaningful. That’s roughly the difference in chances of winning between card counting in Blackjack and running basic strategy, which can nevertheless cost casinos enough money over the long haul to get people banned from casinos. But for a single realized outcome? The difference is effectively meaningless. This race is close. Yet crossing that 50% threshold has deep psychological meaning for people, which leads to the freakouts and recriminations that come with those thresholds being crossed. Nevertheless, people want answers, so aside from the insistence that “it is close and could go either way, and I mean that,” I do think Trump is likely the favorite. The reason has nothing to do with early voting. I’ll have more to say about this later, but I’ve long considered reading early-voting tea leaves to be a dead end. But I think there are more tangible indicators that, if forced to place a single bet, Trump would be the more likely winner. I’ve long believed in the rule of thumb: Watch what the candidates are doing, even more so than what the polls are saying. So ask yourself, which candidate is changing her (spoiler alert!) strategy a few weeks before the election? Kamala Harris had famously avoided impromptu interviews while she led over the summer, yet suddenly she is appearing on The View and Fox News (neither of which went particularly well). Is it a good sign that Barack Obama is on the hustings imploring black men to vote for Harris? At the same time, Trump is holding rallies in places like Coachella and Madison Square Garden. These moves only make sense for Trump if his team thinks he’s in good shape, and he’s hoping to keep the House Republican or perhaps improve turnout in blue states so that he can potentially win the popular vote. Of course, it’s Donald Trump, so there isn’t always a clear method to his madness (perhaps he just always wanted to play the Garden), but in a close race, we read the tea leaves we have. Second, we can look at the movement in our poll averages. It hardly matters which poll average you look at, whether it is the national polls, or Wisconsin, or Michigan, but all of them show a late break toward Trump. It would be one thing if it were just a state or two, but it really is consistent, across-the-board movement that also holds up comparing pollster-to-pollster. That gives us a fairly high degree of confidence it is “real.” This phenomenon is just a manifestation of something I started to think about after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. After a month of glowing press coverage (which was reasonable given the circumstances), the glow of a vice presidential pick, and a successful convention, Harris was only up a couple of points – with no one really having landed a glove on her. What would happen when the campaign engaged in earnest and the blows started to fall? Well, something like what we’re seeing. Harris never really took advantage of this time to define herself and her candidacy, which meant there was always a thinness to her support. Third, there is the possibility that Trump (again) overperforms his polling. I don’t want to make too much of this. It’s true he overperformed – significantly – in 2020 and 2016. But 2020 was a weird year, to say the least, and 2016 was really an instance of pollsters’ techniques being inappropriate to the changing party coalitions. Or maybe marginal Trump supporters are characterized by low levels of social trust and are just less likely to answer the phone than other similarly situated individuals. That story has some logic to it and is difficult to correct. Attempts to weight by recalled presidential vote are fraught, however, and could actually lead to an overestimation of Trump’s strength. Regardless, assuming he’ll overperform this time is an awful lot to hang off of effectively two observations. We might put a little bit of a thumb on the scale on this basis. But in a close race, that’s enough. If you’re through this thinking, “That is some thin gruel,” I agree! As I said, the real answer is, “This is a close race that could go either way.” I might add: “We probably won’t have a better sense of things until the election returns start drifting in.” I’d also note that it’s hard for me to find small “tells” pointing in the other direction. So, if I had to play a hand, I’d rather play his than hers. But the better bet for now is to just walk away from the table and wait. It’s close. Real close. This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.

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On October 22, 2024 around 11:50 PM, Elmira Police Officers were dispatched to the report of gun shots in the area of Stephens PL and Lake St in the City of Elmira. Several callers reported hearing a number of gun shots, however, no further information was being provided. While arriving on scene, officers located numerous spent shell casings in the roadway. No one in the area reported any injuries or damaged property. No further information is being released at this time and the investigation is ongoing. If anyone has any information regarding this incident, please contact the Elmira Police Department at (607) 737-5626 or leave a message on the anonymous tip line at (607) 271- HALT. Information can also be sent anonymously to the Elmira Police Department via OPERATION HALT at www.cityofelmira.net.

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Steuben County Sheriff Jim Allard reports that on October 21, 2024, at about 12:40am, deputies of the Steuben County Sheriff’s Office were dispatched to an address on Angel Road in the Town of Cameron, New York, to check the welfare of the resident based upon the reported concerns of family members. Upon arrival deputies were met by the resident, identified as fifty- year-old Allen V. Hoad, II, who was outside of the residence. Police say Hoad began yelling at the responding deputies and then shot at and struck two patrol vehicles with a shotgun, causing damage to both vehicles. Neither deputy was injured. All units then retreated to a perimeter location. Crisis Negotiators and the Steuben County SWAT team responded and began crisis negotiations to attempt to bring the incident to a peaceful conclusion while maintaining a safe perimeter around the residence. Negotiators attempted to convince Mr. Hoad to leave the residence unarmed and turn himself in for approximately 12 hours. During the negotiations Mr. Hoad made numerous terroristic threats, threats to carry out mass casualty incidents and specific threats to leave the residence armed with firearms with the express intention to kill people. At about 2pm Mr. Hoad was observed loading his vehicle with a firearm and began driving from the residence. He then proceeded south on Angel Road and left the roadway driving into a field, avoiding a police barricade. He left the field and entered Lower Swale Road as deputies attempted to stop the vehicle. Hoad stopped his vehicle in a driveway at a residence on Lower Swale Road and attempted to enter an occupied residence. As deputies continued to give verbal commands for Hoad to stop and submit to arrest, he re-entered his vehicle which contained multiple weapons and drove it directly at deputies in the roadway, colliding with a patrol vehicle. Deputies and other officers on scene discharged their weapons to stop Mr. Hoad from causing serious injury to responding deputies and the public. Mr. Hoad exited the vehicle and began physically fighting with the responding deputies and was subsequently taken into custody. Medical treatment was initiated immediately. Steuben County Sheriff’s Paramedic and Steuben County ALS were staged on scene and began immediate treatment prior to transportation by ambulance. Mr. Hoad was transported to a local hospital for continued medical treatment. He was later pronounced dead. “Our thoughts and prayers are with the Hoad family” said Sheriff Allard, “We also pray for the families of the officers and deputies who were involved in this stressful critical incident, and work to insure wellness for them. A huge thank you to all the community and family members who worked with us to attempt to bring this to a peaceful conclusion”. Corning Police Chief Kenzie Spaulding said “We are saddened that this incident occurred, but are always here to help ensure public safety with our law enforcement partners throughout Steuben County.” Sheriff Allard thanks the City of Corning Police Department, the Canisteo Police Department and the New York State Police for responding to a request for mutual aid in this incident, as well as the Chemung County Sheriff's Office and the Elmira Police Department for their offers of assistance.

By JeremyPortnoy October 21, 2024 The State of New York has spent $40 million on its County-Wide Shared Service Initiative, which appears to exist for the explicit purpose of eliminating taxpayer savings. Key facts: The program was established in 2017 to encourage small towns and villages to combine their local services and save money. Two neighboring counties might merge their court systems, for example, or move their human resources departments into a shared office space and split the rent. That’s when New York State steps in with “matching funds.” Localities send a report of how much money they saved, and the state sends them a cash reward. WOTD 10.21.24 Open the Books Long Island’s Nassau County announced last month that its villages had saved $1.6 million by combining services. As a reward, the villages will receive $960,000 of taxpayer money from the state — erasing more than half of the savings. In some instances, towns received matching funds that exceeded their reported savings. Onondaga County and the City of Syracuse announced they had saved $2.2 million by merging their Medicare plans in 2017. The state rewarded them with $5.7 million. New York has awarded matching funds to over 100 applicants. There are 34 more awaiting potential funds. One might argue that the program saves money in the long run. The matching funds are a one-time payment, while the local savings are permanent and can reduce property taxes. However, it’s unclear why the matching funds are necessary at all. Tiny villages should not have separate local services in the first place. If the services can be combined, saving money should be its own incentive; no matching funds needed. Summary: Paying local governments to spend less money is absurd both on paper and in practice. The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com This article was originally published by RealClearInvestigations and made available via RealClearWire.

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By Frank Miele October 21, 2024 I wouldn’t be much of a political pundit if I weren’t willing to share my prediction for what will happen in 15 days when one of the most important presidential elections in history is decided. So here goes: Donald Trump will win, and he will win convincingly. But that doesn’t mean the progressive left won’t have a meltdown. Just as in 2016, when Trump was first elected president, the media will be dismayed, the Democrats will be shocked, and there will be protests in the streets, possibly violent. Congressional Democrats such as Jamie Raskin will try to prevent Trump from being sworn in by declaring him an insurrectionist. Seven so-called battleground states are supposed to decide the election: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. But even more important will be the experience of the American people, who in large measure have come to regret the election that put Joe Biden in the White House four years ago. That is the underlying story that the media will never acknowledge. Polling within the last year shows that less than one-third of Republicans believe Biden is the legitimate president, and 36% of all Americans have doubts about the 2020 election. That is only a feeling, not a fact, but feelings decide presidential elections, and the almost gleeful anti-American thrust of Biden’s presidency has given more than 60% of potential voters a feeling that we are on the wrong track as a nation. Five days before the 2020 election, I published a spoof that proved modestly prophetic as a warning about the pitfalls of a Democratic victory. Called “The Short Happy Presidency of Joe Biden,” it predicted that Kamala Harris would invoke the 25th Amendment immediately after Biden’s inauguration in order to seize power in a bureaucratic coup. It didn’t quite happened that way, of course, but 3½ disastrous years later, Kamala along with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi seemingly used the specter of the 25th Amendment to force Biden to end his reelection bid. Life imitating art. In my pastiche, President Trump had appeared close to sealing his victory in the 2020 election, thanks to late mail-in votes in Pennsylvania. But “in an emergency session, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court convenes and reverses its earlier ruling that late votes could be counted for up to three days. The new ruling asserts that late voting amounts to election interference ‘on account of Trump winning,’ thus handing the state and the Electoral College victory to Biden.” Exaggerated, yes, but prescient in regard to how courts across the country would eventually rule in Biden’s favor on almost every issue, refusing to look at the evidence of fraud or unconstitutional irregularities. Perhaps the most prophetic aspect of my column four years ago was how I depicted the reaction of Trump to losing a disputed election. Just two days after the inauguration of first Biden and then Harris: Former President Donald Trump announces that he is running for re-election in 2024 after taking a four-year rest to catch up on his golf and make a few billion dollars. Trump says his new role model will be Grover Cleveland, the only president to serve non-consecutive terms. “If it’s good enough for Grover, it’s good enough for me!” Trump also tries out a new campaign slogan, as he takes a swing at Biden voters with a red, white and blue cap inscribed with “TUSA,” short for “Told U So America!” When you think about it, that really is the underlying message that Trump has been sharing for the past four years. And Americans got the message – because it matched their lived experience. They saw with their own eyes that the wide-open Biden border was being called secure by Biden, Harris, and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. They saw that Biden’s Supreme Court nominee couldn’t say for sure what makes a woman a woman, and then they watched as boys began to dominate girls’ sports. They watched prices on the rise and safety in decline. Worst of all, they stood helpless as the world seemed to be rushing headlong toward World War III, first in Ukraine, then the Middle East, all the while as China has been threatening to cripple the world economy by attacking Taiwan. So, yes, Trump will be elected as the 47th president of the United States, and the liberal talking heads will melt down just as they did in 2016. But what matters most is what happens after the election, and whether the experience of Americans will reflect renewed prosperity, a safer world, and respect for tradition and common sense. Many will try to prevent that, but making America great again should be a unifying goal. “Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” And if I am wrong and Kamala Harris becomes the 47th president, I pray that divine providence takes hold of her and guides her to protect, defend, and strengthen these United States and their Constitution. Seems like a long shot, but without Trump, prayer is all we got. This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.

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