"It's The Economy, Stupid" U.S. Economy Megathread

[Twin Tiers Living 489]

 

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The United States is not in a recession.

Probably.

Economic output, as measured by gross domestic product, fell in the first quarter of the year. Government data due this week may show that it fell in the second quarter as well. Such a two-quarter decline would meet a common, though unofficial, definition of a recession.

Most economists still don’t think the United States meets the formal definition, which is based on a broader set of indicators, including measures of income, spending and job growth. But they aren’t quite as sure as they were a few weeks ago. The housing market has slowed sharply, income and spending are struggling to keep pace with inflation, and a closely watched measure of layoffs has begun to creep up.

“A month ago, I was writing that it was very unlikely that we are in a recession,” said Jeffrey Frankel, a Harvard economist. “If I had to write that now, I would take out the ‘very.’”

Mr. Frankel served until 2019 on the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the semiofficial arbiter of when recessions begin and end in the United States. The committee tries to be definitive, which means it typically waits as much as a year to declare that a recession has begun, long after most independent economists have reached that conclusion. In other words, even if we are already in a recession, we might not know it — or, at least, might not have official confirmation of it — until next year.

In the meantime, economists agree that the risks of a recession are rising. The Federal Reserve is raising rates aggressively to try to tame inflation, which has already contributed to large declines in the stock market and a steep drop in home construction and sales. Higher borrowing costs are all but certain to lead to slower spending by consumers, reduced investment by businesses and, eventually, slower hiring and more layoffs — all hallmarks of an economic downturn.

“Are we in a recession? We don’t think so yet. Are we going to be in one? It’s a high risk,” said Joel Prakken, chief U.S. economist for S&P Global Market Intelligence.

 

 

Read the rest here.

[Chris 3,211]

I'm no economist, but the current administration seems do be doing all they can to avoid admitting that the economy absolutely sucks. 

[MsKreed 1,570]

[MsKreed 1,570]

Corning Inc's very own Wendell Weeks participated in a roundtable with POTUS today. 

I thought it was significant that Weeks noted Corning's corporate customers are keeping up demand for its "infrastructure" products (fiber-optics for 5G, solar panels, etc) that are spurred by recent tax-infused legislation..... there is a distinct lack of demand for its consumer products (smart phone and LCD screens, automotive, etc).

The meeting doesn't start until about 35:30 in the video:

 

[Chris 3,211]

The mental gymnastics they’re performing to avoid admitting the fact that things aren’t great are amazing. 

[Twin Tiers Living 489]

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WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. inflation is showing signs of entering a more stubborn phase that will likely require drastic action by the Federal Reserve, a shift that has panicked financial markets and heightens the risks of a recession.

Some of the longtime drivers of higher inflation — spiking gas prices, supply chain snarls, soaring used-car prices — are fading. Yet underlying measures of inflation are actually worsening.

 

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[Twin Tiers Living 489]

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If a bowl of cereal topped with fruit is part of your morning routine, expect to pay more for it. All the ingredients – cereal, fruit, and milk – are on the rise.

Consumers are paying 11% more for overall food items than they did a year ago, according to the monthly Consumer Price Index report, released Tuesday morning.

The rise in the cost of food at home, or groceries, is still in the double-digit range, rising 13.5% from a year ago. It's the largest 12-month increase since March 1979. The cost of cereal and other cereal products is up more than 17% from this time last year.

Love eggs? The price for eggs is up nearly 40% from last August, mostly because of an avian flu outbreak.

 

Read the rest here.

[Chris 3,211]

I'm still shocked by the price of eggs in the stores and how little people around here with a home flock are charging. With feed prices around 19.00/50#  for layer ration, you're losing money at 3.00-3.50 a dozen. And yet people are still only charging 2.00.

When it comes to other foods, I've seen the price of some items jump by 20 cents between purchases. 

A hint though: If you're a Sam's club member you can save dollars off of some items if you buy it there vs the grocery store. A block of cheddar cheese was 2.00-3.00 cheaper at Sam's. And you can buy things like Ballpark Franks in larger quantities (24 ) then break them down into three bags of 8 and freeze them. I figure we save at least 5.00-6.00. You just have to put a little thought into it. 

[KarenK 503]

3 hours ago, Chris said:

I'm still shocked by the price of eggs in the stores and how little people around here with a home flock are charging. With feed prices around 19.00/50#  for layer ration, you're losing money at 3.00-3.50 a dozen. And yet people are still only charging 2.00.

When it comes to other foods, I've seen the price of some items jump by 20 cents between purchases. 

A hint though: If you're a Sam's club member you can save dollars off of some items if you buy it there vs the grocery store. A block of cheddar cheese was 2.00-3.00 cheaper at Sam's. And you can buy things like Ballpark Franks in larger quantities (24 ) then break them down into three bags of 8 and freeze them. I figure we save at least 5.00-6.00. You just have to put a little thought into it. 

I do that same thing at Sams and it was hot dogs this week.  LOL.  Only 2 of us so break them into bags of 6.  They really were not all that expensive.

Bacon is also a better deal at Sams right now.

[MsKreed 1,570]

10 hours ago, TwinTiersLiving said:

The rise in the cost of food at home, or groceries, is still in the double-digit range, rising 13.5% from a year ago. It's the largest 12-month increase since March 1979.

In perspective of yearly income....13.5% represents seven weeks. That's like squeezing over a month and a half of household income to cover the increase in grocery costs. 

10 hours ago, Chris said:

A hint though: If you're a Sam's club member you can save dollars off of some items if you buy it there vs the grocery store. A block of cheddar cheese was 2.00-3.00 cheaper at Sam's. And you can buy things like Ballpark Franks in larger quantities (24 ) then break them down into three bags of 8 and freeze them. I figure we save at least 5.00-6.00. You just have to put a little thought into it.

I find myself putting a lot of thought into keeping groceries affordable.  Buying in quantity is the best price, but living alone means I have to be cautious about overstocking perishables. If I take note that expiration date on eggs is close, it's time to boil some up to stretch their life (even if it's not what I'm in the mood to eat). But I've had times when I wasn't paying close attention to cook/eat them frequently enough to finish it off before they expired. Lately I've passed on fresh eggs and instead keep frozen omelettes on hand. 

Edited September 19, 2022 by MsKreed

[Twin Tiers Living 489]

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve delivered its bluntest reckoning Wednesday of what it will take to finally tame painfully high inflation: Slower growth, higher unemployment and potentially a recession. 

Speaking at a news conference, Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged what many economists have been saying for months: That the Fed’s goal of engineering a “soft landing” — in which it would manage to slow growth enough to curb inflation but not so much as to cause a recession — looks increasingly unlikely. 

“The chances of a soft landing,” Powell said, “are likely to diminish” as the Fed steadily raises borrowing costs to slow the worst streak of inflation in four decades. “No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or, if so, how significant that recession would be.”

 

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[Twin Tiers Living 489]

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New YorkCNN Business — 

US stocks fell sharply Friday morning, as investors continued to worry about even more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve that could land the US economy in a recession. 

The Dow (INDU) was down 289 points, or 1%, at the market open. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1.1% and The Nasdaq(COMP) composite was 1.1% lower.

The Dow opened below 30,000 points, a level it briefly breached Thursday. If the Dow ends the day below 30,000, it would be the first time it closed below that barrier since June 17. And a somewhat more sizable plunge could land the index at on a two-year low Friday.

 

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[Chris 3,211]

OPEC is said to be cutting production, so BOHICA

[Twin Tiers Living 489]

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New York, New York -- More than half of Americans are considering taking on extra jobs to be able to pay for everyday expenses and meet the rising cost of living as inflation remains high.

Employees in the U.S. are combating the soaring prices of essentials like groceries, housing, and gas by looking for ways to increase their incomes and cut down on expenses, according to a new study by Qualtrics, a software technology company. The survey of more than 1000 full-time employees found that 38% of workers have looked for a second job, while another 14% are planning to do so.

“With budgets tightening, workers are searching for ways to meet the rising cost of living, including finding new jobs,” said Qualtrics Chief Workplace Psychologist Dr. Benjamin Granger.

Working parents are especially pinched as nearly 70% said their pay isn’t keeping up with costs, the poll states. 

 

Read the rest here.

[Chris 3,211]

After yesterday's trip to the grocery store, I don't care what anyone says, inflation is not under control and the economy is not "great."

Every bi-weekly trip to the store is a lesson in reality as the price of damn near everything goes up another 30-40 cents each trip. Those cheap ass little wafer cookies I like and used to buy for like, $1.39 a package? Two bucks. A four pack of Scott toilet paper? It's now over $6.00

This shit keeps up, I'll either have to get another job or we'll qualify for food stamps. Then I won't have to worry about prices, get monthly raises and be able to buy all name brand stuff apparently

[Hal 553]

If you get an EBT card you won’t have to forgo getting your favorites like we do now ! Food shopping has become more “window shopping “ than buying and getting worse every trip like you say . And we aren’t supposed to notice the sizes of the portions either , these marketing folks are pretty twicky ! 

[Adam 527]

given that americans are forced to find multiple jobs, i wonder if that has anything to do with the "improved" economy O'l Joe is out touting currently

[Twin Tiers Living 489]

This thread has been renamed and merged with a couple others to keep all economic talk in one place.

[Twin Tiers Living 489]

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The Fed on Wednesday is expected to announce a hefty three-quarter-point hike in its key short-term rate — its fourth straight — which will lead to still-higher loan rates for many businesses and consumers. What many Fed-watchers hope is that Chair Jerome Powell will hint at a news conference that the central bank may ease the pace of its hikes, perhaps to a half-point in December and two quarter-point hikes next year. 

Even at that more moderate pace, the central bank’s benchmark rate would reach 4.75% to 5%, which would be its highest range since 2007, up from the current 3% to 3.25%. Fed officials have stressed that they need to sharply raise rates to tame inflation, which reached 8.2% in September from 12 months earlier, barely below a 40-year high. Chronic inflation has also become a central point of attack for Republicans against Democrats in the midterm congressional elections.

 

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[Twin Tiers Living 489]

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Price increases moderated in the United States last month in the latest sign that the inflation pressures that have gripped the nation might be easing as the economy slows and consumers grow more cautious. 

Consumer inflation reached 7.7% in October from a year earlier and 0.4% from September, the government said Thursday. The year-over-year increase, a slowdown from 8.2% in September, was the smallest rise since January. A separate gauge called core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 6.3% in the past 12 months and 0.3% from September.

The numbers were all lower than economists had expected.

 

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[Chris 3,211]

Forgive me if I’m not out dancing in the streets just yet. 

[Chris 3,211]

They just reported on the news that the average price of fuel oil in NY right now is $6.06!!

https://www.mytwintiers.com/news-cat/local-news/kerosene-fuel-oil-prices-jump-60-in-new-york-from-2021/?utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR344qO2TPgxvbQ1i5uGSAXRbflGjJgTWbnuZ-y4qqzNaGlH53iKInj-ZGc

 

[Hal 553]

Dang … that propane bill is looking pretty good right now ! 

[Chris 3,211]

I know it's not only because of inflation, but the prices on eggs right now is mind blowing:

[Chris 3,211]

Moved to new forum, because it's always relevant.