Rural Voters Don't Necessarily Love Tim Walz, Despite The Camo Hat And Small Town Upbringing

[Twin Tiers Living 489]

Tim Walz has a rural image, but that doesn’t mean rural America will vote for him. Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Getty Images

Nicholas Jacobs, Colby College

The selection of Tim Walz as Kamala Harris’ running mate has sparked a wave of commentary suggesting that simply by elevating a former small-town football coach to the candidacy for vice president, Democrats will naturally secure the allegiance of rural voters nationwide.

At first glance, such analysis – tinged with wishful thinking – seems self-evident. Walz, the governor of Minnesota, was raised in a small, rural town in Nebraska and runs a Midwestern state with a strong rural identity. And it is hard to deny that many rural advocates and writers genuinely feel seen and represented with the choice of Walz – a feeling not felt in quite some time. Indeed, you can now sport a Harris-Walz camo hat this hunting season.

But a closer examination reveals that such expectations may be overly simplistic and optimistic.

Tim Walz campaigns for governor in St. James, Minn., on Sept. 15, 2018. Walz won the election, getting only 40.3% of the rural vote. Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Getty Images

Nationalization of the rural voter

While Walz’s selection may offer symbolic value, it demands a lot of a single candidate to overcome a seismic restructuring of American political geography. Over the past 40 years, as political scientist Dan Shea and I show in our book “The Rural Voter,” Republican partisans have come to dominate rural politics.

In one respect, Walz has built his career trying to reverse that tide, advocating for communities like the one he came from. His positions are, of course, open to interpretation, but Walz has had to grapple with what we call the “nationalization” of the rural voting bloc – the fact that rural voters in all parts of the country view themselves as politically powerless, victims of bad government policy and culturally maligned.

While images of corn dog-eating, dad-joking, “Midwestern Nice” folksiness have become routine in covering Walz, they do little to explain the real issues that have made rural voters a sizable force in recent American elections.

Over the past 40 years, this politicized identity has come to distinguish rural voters from urban ones, and even from other groups that are predisposed to vote for Republican or conservative candidates. Drawing on a nationally representative sample of 7,500 rural voters from February 2024, I joined 15 other scholars in digging into these views.

“Midwestern Nice” does little to capture the grievance and anxiety felt by many rural residents living across the country. As multiple indicators suggest, majorities of rural residents think their communities get less government spending than they deserve, that local kids will not do as well as their parents later in life, and that much of this is the fault of urbanites. On this front, the Midwest is no different than the rest of the country.

Limited success in rural contests

Given the fact that rural voters in the Midwest are much like the rest of the country, Walz’s performance within his home state of Minnesota is a relevant bellwether for his national appeal among rural voters. Though Walz has deep rural roots, rural voters have not always supported him as much as his backstory might quickly suggest.

In six elections over the past eight years, populist candidates for major offices in upper Midwestern states have seen differing levels of success in rural parts of their districts or states. Using the vote share that each candidate received from majority-rural counties – counties where the rural population is more than 50% of the total – as a proxy for rural support both district- and statewide, Walz’s performance has decreased among rural voters since he last ran for reelection to Congress in 2016. It does not exceed the support other candidates in the Midwest received from similar rural-majority counties.

I calculated the percent of the population living in a census-defined rural bloc for Walz’s former congressional district and the state of Minnesota. I then calculated the percent of Walz’s vote share that came from rural-majority counties in each of his past three elections, one for Congress and the other two for governor.

Like other Democrats in districts across the nation, Walz struggled to win rural voters in his congressional district – Minnesota’s First District – and statewide. Neither of those are majority-rural constituencies, but even when just looking at the most rural areas, Walz never won a majority. In fact, his largest losses running for reelection as governor in 2022 were in rural communities. That year, Walz captured just 38% of the vote in rural-majority counties across Minnesota.

Some might see this as evidence that no Democrat could do well in rural America. If not the folksy Walz, then who, they might ask?

Just look next door.

In Walz’s own Midwest region, other Democrats have performed strongly among rural constituencies. U.S. Sens. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota performed nearly as strong as their Republican opponents within the most rural parts of their electorate. Even Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer outperformed Walz’s rural numbers.

That’s right, if Democrats wanted a candidate from the Midwest on the national ticket who did better with rural voters, Harris-Whitmer would have a better track record of rural support. And worth noting: Whitmer, Baldwin and Klobuchar each grew up in cities.

Managing Democrats’ expectations

None of this is to say that Democrats have made a mistake by playing into the rural or small-town trope that many have enthusiastically conjured over Walz’s candidacy. Walz is a clear counterbalance to the image constructed by another Midwestern, self-proclaimed spokesperson for rural America on the ballot: JD Vance.

A recent Washington Post poll on the two vice presidential nominees’ popularity shows that Walz has secured a marginal geographic advantage among voters across the U.S. In urban areas, about 20% of voters dislike Vance more than like him. Among rural respondents, just 14% of voters dislike Walz more than like him. Walz, however, is still less popular than popular among rural voters, while Vance is viewed favorably, on average.

But it is worth remembering that the most popular candidate to ever win rural America neither hails from a rural America nor pretends to. Donald Trump’s appeal lies not in his personal connection to rural life but in his ability to tap into the sentiments of rural discontent and align them with his broader political message. Trump has shown that the politics of rural identity do not easily translate to simple identity politics.

It should not be hard to find a candidate who won’t disdain rural voters as a basket of deplorables, as Hillary Clinton famously did in the 2016 presidential campaign. Nor should it be hard to find a candidate who believes that showing up in rural areas is not just good strategy but good for democracy.

But Walz’s challenge is not merely to present a rural-friendly image.

It’s addressing the deeper issues that motivate rural voters, such as economic insecurity, perceived cultural marginalization and distrust in government. Symbolic gestures – and camo hats – alone are not sufficient to sway their support.

 

Nicholas Jacobs is Assistant Professor of Government at Colby College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

[MsKreed 1,571]

There’s a distinction between superficial gestures that reflect stereotypical caricatures of rural “identity” and presenting policies that support (or harm)  rural needs.

 

Wearing a camo hat doesn’t change the policies that rural voters are unhappy with.

For instance....Democratic “clean/green” policies that are cost prohibitive (or outright prohibition) for fossil fuels is a huge concern for rural residents. Electric vehicle mandates will strand them within a limited radius from their homes. School districts would be unable to transport rural children the necessary distances (especially in winter when batteries discharge more quickly). Excessive diesel and gas taxes will make it too expensive to power farm equipment....or their fossil-fuel powered emergency generators during natural disasters.

 

For most...that freedom to travel as needed, maintain ones livelihood/income outweighs any folksy images and tropes that mimic their rural “character”.

[Chris 3,211]

All I can think of is, rolling up your sleeves, wearing Carharrt hoodies, or dressing up like Elmer Fudd doesn't mean you're one of us.  

[Hal 553]

6 hours ago, Chris said:

All I can think of is, rolling up your sleeves, wearing Carharrt hoodies, or dressing up like Elmer Fudd doesn't mean you're one of us.  

Thank you Chris !! 

[Pvt Snowball 44]

But at least he doing something then most people from small towns 

[MsKreed 1,571]

6 hours ago, Chris said:

All I can think of is, rolling up your sleeves, wearing Carharrt hoodies, or dressing up like Elmer Fudd doesn't mean you're one of us.  

When radical urban progressives wear "costumes" to look like rural folks.....One also has to ponder whether it's “cultural appropriation” or a wildly offensive “hillbilly” equivalent of Black Face.

Quote

Actual product on Amazon:

 

 

[Chris 3,211]

37 minutes ago, Pvt Snowball said:

But at least he doing something then most people from small towns 

Huh?

Im guessing you’re saying he’s doing something more than people from small towns?

You couldn’t be more wrong, my friend. 

[Hal 553]

39 minutes ago, Pvt Snowball said:

But at least he doing something then most people from small towns 

Bwahaa! Should have stayed away from that one Pvt Snowball 😂! 

 

33 minutes ago, MsKreed said:

When radical urban progressives wear "costumes" to look like rural folks.....One also has to ponder whether it's “cultural appropriation” or a wildly offensive “hillbilly” equivalent of Black Face.

Love this ! 

Edited August 23 by Hal

[Chris 3,211]

34 minutes ago, MsKreed said:

like rural folks.....One also has to ponder whether it's “cultural appropriation” or a wildly offensive “hillbilly” equivalent of Black Face.

I can’t speak for many of my “backwoods brethren,” as I’ve been described as a bit of “an anomaly” when it comes to fitting the typical rural mold.

But me? I can smell the manure a mile away.

[Hal 553]

5 minutes ago, Chris said:

Huh?

Would you like some help pulling your foot out of your mouth Pvt Snowball ? Lol 

[Adam 527]

On 8/22/2024 at 12:49 PM, MsKreed said:

For instance....Democratic “clean/green” policies

Not specifically geared towards you, but seeing that part of the quote reminded me: Too often these last 4-6 years segments of the population use the term "Democratic" when speaking about policies and issues held dear by democrats.

there is an important distinction between the two usages that many folks do not appreciate and i firmly believe that those on the left have seized upon this for really great marketing purposes. There are  principles of the democrat party that many folks disagree with, but by simply adding the "ic" to the end of its usage; well suddenly it becomes a Democratic ideal and only fascists and racists dont support Democracy

[Pvt Snowball 44]

1 hour ago, Hal said:

Would you like some help pulling your foot out of your mouth Pvt Snowball ? Lol 

We shall see in November 

[MsKreed 1,571]

6 minutes ago, Adam said:

Not specifically geared towards you, but seeing that part of the quote reminded me: Too often these last 4-6 years segments of the population use the term "Democratic" when speaking about policies and issues held dear by democrats.

there is an important distinction between the two usages that many folks do not appreciate and i firmly believe that those on the left have seized upon this for really great marketing purposes. There are  principles of the democrat party that many folks disagree with, but by simply adding the "ic" to the end of its usage; well suddenly it becomes a Democratic ideal and only fascists and racists dont support Democracy

You are correct....and that's actually a distinction I, myself, have usually made a point of. 

I think this week I've heard way too many plugs for the "Democratic National Convention". And they are registered as "Democratic Party" as a 501(c)

Their repetition must be working, because I usually say "Democrat". LOL

 

[Hal 553]

53 minutes ago, Pvt Snowball said:

We shall see in November 

Still not reading the Full context of anyone’s post I see lol !